Goal Diggers
The 2025 season has gifted the Orange and Blue a real opportunity. With a regular-season mark of 20-9-5 and 65 points, they locked in the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, positioning themselves for a serious run.
Here is the detailed roadmap: the what, the why, the how, and the odds.
Step 1: Locking Down Round One
Their opening opponent is the familiar rival, the Columbus Crew, in a best-of-3 series. The format gives an advantage: win two and you’re through.
After taking Game 1 at home 1-0, Cincinnati has momentum.
The second leg is at Columbus. A win there closes the series. If not, Game 3 returns to TQL Stadium.
The format again: first to two wins advances.
According to projections, Cincinnati’s chance of winning this series sits around 61 %.
Key for Step 1:
Strike first. A lead forces Columbus to chase.
Protect home court (Game 3 safety net).
Control the midfield and transitions; Columbus will lean on possession and entries.
Defend set pieces tenaciously; momentum in playoff soccer can turn fast.
Step 2: Single-Game Conference Semifinal
If Cincinnati advances, the next hurdle is a single-elimination match (likely Nov 22–23) against either the 3rd seed Inter Miami CF or 6th seed Nashville SC. The bracket suggests Miami is the likeliest opponent.
What must happen:
If facing Miami, limit the service into their attacking half, neutralize counter-attacks, stay compact without sacrificing attacking rhythm.
If facing Nashville, maintain high pressing, take advantage of any lapses—they are less battle-hardened than Miami.
Prioritize full health: injuries or fatigue now become magnified.
Step 3: Conference Final (Single Game)
Next: winners of the other East bracket (likely the top seed Philadelphia Union or team from the Charlotte/NYCFC quadrant). That game is Nov 29–30. Venue depends on seeding and overall league points.
Key considerations:
If it’s Philadelphia, likely on the road—so Cincinnati must handle hostile environment.
Tactical flexibility is vital: opponent may shift style based on tournament form rather than regular season.
Experience matters: the squad’s big-match mindset will be tested.
Step 4: MLS Cup Final (Dec 6)
The ultimate prize. One match to win it all, hosted by the finalist with the better regular-season record. Cincinnati would need to do everything right.
Odds reflect that: they appear in many futures boards at around +1000 to +1200 to win the Cup.
Realistic Chances
Round One: ~60-65 % chance to advance given the series lead and home-advantage.
Conference Title: If they advance through Round One, probability to win East drops, but still credible (market sees 9-10 % chance for the Cup).
Winning the Cup: An estimated single-digit chance today—perhaps 8-12 %—but that’s far from zero. They’re firmly in “live contender” status, not long-shots.
Why Cincinnati Can Do It
Their regular-season return (20-9-5) shows consistency and resilience.
They boast key contributors in form and locked-in: their shooting, defending, and transition play have risen this season.
The playoff format (best-of-3 then single games) rewards teams with depth and tactical discipline—two areas Cincinnati have improved in.
The rival matchup with Columbus may feel familiar but gives Cincinnati confidence: they’ve done the work, and now the stakes are higher.
What Needs to Break Right
Remaining healthy. Injuries to core players would tip the balance.
Strong starts in each round. Early concessions in single-elimination games punish you.
Opponents floundering helps: e.g., if Miami or Philadelphia slip up, Cincinnati’s path opens.
Setting the tone at home. TQL Stadium must remain a fortress if they reach the later rounds.
The path is clear. Win the series, navigate the one-and-done rounds, keep health and momentum on side, and avoid getting caught in a trap game. For FC Cincinnati, this isn’t just hope—it’s a practical roadmap. They have the runway. Will they take off? The odds say they have a solid chance. The next few games will tell the tale.